Saturday, April 14, 2007

"How I learned to stop to worrying....

..and love the Bomb CHICOM.

Just kidding. At least about the "love" part.

If I could pick out one trend, in the last century, it was the tendency to over emotionalize ideology over results. All the little -isms, from socialism, to communism, Nazism and the current crop of Islamism all had one thing in common. They pimped a grievance, and used emotionalism to push "the cause."

I distrust causes in general, and movements in particular. Pace Hoffer, they always seem to come to the same end. Spent, bankrupt and eventually doing more harm than the good they promised.

I'll keep it short, because I tend to ramble.

Finished the first of the John Hopkins videos mentioned below. Started with Thomas P.M. Barnett, because in his books, he always leads with hope. I mean, you can always bomb later, right?

Towards the end there, he talks about Merka's relationship with the CHICOMs, INC. Hey, there's two school of thought there.

One says we need to be ready to blow the Han to hell in a, must resist pun, Handbasket once on toe touches water.

The other is a cynical "realist" view of engaging China (NOKO are their problem, they'll get a sphere of interest, etc).

It was the last few minutes of Barnett's speech I found interesting. Now maybe I'm over interpreting, but here's my takeaway: Self-Interested Cooperation based on economics.

Sweet, sweet capitalism.

Google and Amazon. Google is striving to be the company that knows everything. Amazon is striving to be the company that provides everything. Me, I'll take the knowledge role.

Remember back in the day, when the varying Asian tigers were about to roll Merka, and turn her economy into kibbles, by producing cheap goods? I said back then, well, yeah, China can stamp out the CDs, but it's Michael Jackson (back when he had a reputation) that gives those CDs value.

We are google to the CHICOMs amazon.

Interesting factoid. In the next few years, the CHICOMS overtake the U.S. in the consumption of oil. Heard that before? Well, it won't be because the Merkins have rolled over and died. It will be because we're doing something else. What? I have no idea.

Fact is, we've got quiet a significant lead over just about everyone, China, India, hell, even the Europeans, in productivity, research, quality of life, etc. Now, we can get Lou Dobbsian, and try to preserve what we have (top of the resource heap), or we can set the next economy. I'm an optimist. We are trendsetters.

So back to self-interested cooperation. Strikes me as a more rational, less emotional way of interacting between nations. Less attachment to ideology, and more attachment to integration. Or as Barnett calls it, connectivity.

He sees a rising tide. Plausible.

If we Merkins and the CHICOMs went to war, it would be MADE. Mutual Assured Destruction, Economic. We wouldn't win, and the CHICOMs would certainly lose (less economic cushion), but you describe the effects all around as "not good."

So we interact with China. While remembering our own self interest (something our Diplomats seem incapable of doing, as they work to reach a deal).

Ideology. Every month or two, someone is writing an article about the Rising Chinese Hegemon. Or, lately, the Rising Indian Hegemon. Maybe not. Historically, neither nation travels far. Might be a result of numbers. They've got enough population, issues and complexity to keep them busy. What I find funny, is that it's usually a left of center person praising the The New Next Upcoming Sure To Be Gangbusters Superpower who will replace the Hated Capitalist Entity (tm). Look, the Indians are shedding Fabian socialism. The CHICOMs see communism more a matter of bunting, and less a matter of functioning.

The irony is that to displace the Capitalist Entity, they're having to become more like the Capitalist Entity. But when they get to where we are at, we'll have moved. See Lisbon 2010 for details.

They'll still be different states, sure. Further back on the road to individual freedoms, you bet. Without all the baggage. But without all the benefits, too.

Come circa 2030, we'll just be welcoming the Han to the 1980's and the Europeans to the 2010s. It's how we roll.

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